Jaipur: Gold prices in the domestic futures market came under pressure on Monday. On MCX, gold slipped below the ₹1.54 lakh per 10 grams level to ₹1,53,650. Global markets were also soft, with spot gold down about 0.6% to trade around $4,350 per ounce.
This report is based on the gold commentary by Ashish Rajodiya, Head of Commodity at PL Capital Group. The price data and market assessment come from his statement.
Source: PL Capital Group, gold commentary by Ashish Rajodiya
Gold's Move on MCX
According to Rajodiya, gold on MCX fell roughly ₹700-900 per 10 grams from Friday's close of ₹1,54,381. The intraday low was ₹1,53,031, while the latest price was cited at around ₹1,53,650.
In other words, the market touched a low of ₹1,53,031 during the decline, but the price held somewhat above that level.
The Signal from Global Markets
The domestic weakness is not isolated. According to Rajodiya, the move mirrors a retreat in the global bullion market. Spot gold slipped from a session high close to $4,383 to around $4,350 per ounce, a fall of about 0.6%.
Dollar Index and the Fed's Rate Hike
Rajodiya said the dollar index is holding just above the 100 mark. Last week, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4%, the first increase in three years.
According to him, the hawkish tone of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh continues to underpin the dollar, even though much of that move now looks priced in. (Note: this is Rajodiya's assessment.)
By general market understanding, a stronger dollar and higher interest rates are usually seen as a challenge for gold, since gold pays no interest. This is a general explanation, not a direct statement from the source.
US Inflation and Expectations of Further Tightening
Rajodiya cited comments from Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari. According to him, Kashkari has kept up the pressure by pointing to inflation running hot well beyond its original oil-shock trigger.
In the same context, Rajodiya also mentioned Nordea, which has pencilled in two more rate hikes given the resilience of the US economy and labour market. This is Nordea's assessment, not a confirmed decision. The future path of rates will depend on upcoming data and Fed decisions.
Middle East: Another Layer of Uncertainty
According to Rajodiya, gold traders are also watching for any fresh turn in the Middle East situation. He says such a development could revive the safe-haven demand that is missing from the market today. In other words, safe-haven demand is currently weak, but geopolitical news could change that.
Support and Resistance Levels
Ashish Rajodiya has cited these technical levels for gold:
Support:
-
₹1,51,800
-
₹1,49,000
Resistance:
-
₹1,54,800
-
₹1,56,000
Support levels are those where a decline may pause, while resistance levels are where selling pressure may appear during a rally. The current price of ₹1,53,650 sits between these two ranges.
The Expert's Broader View
Rajodiya says the broader trend in gold remains constructive. According to him, as long as the ₹1,49,000 support holds, dips continue to be a buying opportunity. He believes the outlook would turn cautious only on a break below that level.
(For clarity: this is Ashish Rajodiya's personal view. It is not the conclusion of this report or the publisher, and it is not investment advice.)
What Signals Will Matter for Gold Ahead?
Based on Rajodiya's commentary, the market may keep an eye on the following:
-
Dollar index: Whether it stays above 100 or slips below could influence gold's direction.
-
The Fed's future path: Comments from Fed officials on inflation, and forecasts from institutions such as Nordea, are in focus.
-
US economy and labour market: According to Rajodiya, their resilience is feeding expectations of further tightening.
-
The Middle East situation: Any fresh development could reactivate safe-haven demand.
-
Technical levels: How the price behaves around the ₹1,51,800 and ₹1,49,000 supports and the ₹1,54,800 and ₹1,56,000 resistances will be important.
(Disclaimer: The views quoted in this article belong to the respective expert, Ashish Rajodiya (PL Capital Group), and are given for informational purposes only. They are not investment advice. Investing in commodities carries risk; consult a qualified advisor before making a decision.)
