Domestic wheat prices softened by 3.5% over the past month to Rs 2,380 per quintal as India's agriculture ministry confirmed a record rabi wheat output of 115.2 million tonnes for the 2025-26 crop year, exceeding the previous record of 113.3 million tonnes. The bumper harvest, aided by timely rains and expanded sowing area, has ensured adequate food security buffers and provided room for potential wheat exports if global prices remain supportive.
The Food Corporation of India has been procuring wheat aggressively at the minimum support price of Rs 2,526 per quintal, with procurement expected to reach 30 million tonnes — well above the buffer norm of 27.6 million tonnes. The large government stock provides comfort on food security for the year ahead and reduces the risk of retail wheat and flour price spikes even if the monsoon is below normal in wheat-producing states.
India had banned wheat exports in 2022 following a heat wave that damaged crops. With the record harvest, the government is now evaluating whether to partially resume exports, which could be beneficial for farmers in Punjab and Haryana while also helping global food security. International wheat prices have been elevated due to the ongoing Black Sea supply disruption, making Indian exports potentially competitive in Southeast Asian and African markets.
