Jaipur: India's power sector is entering a period of heavy investment in transmission and grids. Against this backdrop, Deven Choksey Research released an initiating coverage report on Siemens Energy India Ltd. (SEIL) on 21 September 2026. According to the Research Report, the stock carries a "BUY" rating with a target price of ₹4,554. The report takes the CMP as ₹3,230, implying a potential upside of 41% by the brokerage's estimate. The report is titled "Leading the Transmission Super Cycle."
(This article is based entirely on the Deven Choksey Research report. The rating, target and estimates belong to the brokerage, not to Aurelius Business.)
Stock Snapshot
Source: Deven Choksey Research report
| Particulars | Figure |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹3,230 |
| Market Cap | ₹1,15,036 crore |
| Free Float Market Cap | ₹28,484 crore |
| 52-Week High / Low | ₹3,967 / ₹2,105 |
| Avg. Daily Volume (1 year) | 6,72,028 shares |
| Total Shares | 35.60 crore |
| Sector | Energy |
Shareholding (Dec-25 / Mar-26 / Jun-26): Promoter holding remained steady at 75%. FII holding rose from 7.21% to 7.59% and then 7.72%. Mutual Funds/UTI holding declined from 6.7% to 6.44%. Public holding stands at 10.82%.
Brokerage View and Target Price
According to the Research Report, the brokerage arrived at its ₹4,554 target by applying a 60x P/E multiple to estimated FY28 EPS of ₹75.90. The report says SEIL currently trades at around 43x FY28E, while its peers trade at 60x FY28E. It also states that the top-10 Heavy Power Equipment companies trade at an average of 90x.
The report adds that HVDC orders have not been factored into the target. The brokerage describes new HVDC VSC orders and nuclear energy as "additional upside optionality." Under the brokerage's rating legend, the "Buy" category applies to an upside of more than 15%.
Growth Drivers
Source: Deven Choksey Research report
1. HVDC and grid stabilisation: According to the report, SEIL is one of three players in India with HVDC capability, with an estimated market share of about 30%. Its share in STATCOMs is stated as over 50%. The brokerage estimates that India's VSC-HVDC segment could grow at roughly 15–18% CAGR through 2030.
2. Power generation: The company's installed base is described as covering about 55% of large steam turbines and 25% of gas turbines. This creates an opportunity for recurring income from servicing and modernisation.
3. Capacity expansion: The report expects transformer capacity to double from 15 GVA to 30 GVA by the end of this year. A new investment of about ₹2,060 crore is expected to take capacity to 60 GVA by 2030–32. The switchgear expansion at Aurangabad (Sambhajinagar) is cited with capex of about ₹2.8 billion.
4. Exports: Exports accounted for about 29% of revenue in H1FY26, up from about 24% in FY25.
5. Order book: The order book stands at ₹193 billion, which the report says gives roughly 2x revenue visibility. Power Transmission accounts for 69% of it. The brokerage estimates the order book could reach ₹271 billion by FY28.
Financial Outlook (Brokerage Estimates)
Source: Deven Choksey Research report; figures in INR Mn
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78,267 | 95,248 | 1,31,224 | 1,51,069 |
| EBITDA | 15,134 | 21,575 | 30,189 | 35,417 |
| PAT | 11,001 | 15,963 | 22,803 | 27,029 |
| EPS (₹) | 31 | 45 | 64 | 76 |
| EBITDA Margin | 19% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
According to the report, Revenue, EBITDA and PAT are estimated to grow at CAGRs of 25%, 33% and 35% respectively over the next three years. ROE was 29% in FY25 and is estimated at 31%, 34% and 31% in the following years.
The report notes that the company's EBITDA margin was 24% in Q3FY26, against an average of about 21% over the last five quarters. The brokerage does not expect a major structural expansion in margins and estimates them at 22–23%. The report describes the company as largely debt-free, with only lease liabilities.
Industry Opportunity
Source: Deven Choksey Research, along with CEA, Niti Aayog and other sources cited in the report
The report estimates electricity demand rising from 1,694 BU in FY25 to 2,063 BU by FY30. India's renewable capacity reached 274.7 GW in FY26, with a record 54.6 GW added during the year. The brokerage argues that growing solar capacity will create grid-balancing challenges, so the next phase of investment will shift from generation towards grids and transmission.
- The CEA's 900GW non-fossil roadmap implies about ₹7.93 lakh crore of transmission capex over FY26–36.
- Total transmission capex rose from ₹25,000 crore in FY22 to ₹85,000 crore in FY26, and is estimated at about ₹95,000 crore in FY28E.
- According to the report, India's HVDC market could grow at about 12.6% CAGR and STATCOM at about 18% CAGR through 2030.
- Lead times for large power transformers in the US and Europe are cited at 128–160+ weeks, which the report says creates an export opportunity.
Key Risks
Source: Deven Choksey Research report
The report lists the following key risks:
- Margin pressure from volatility in CRGO steel, copper and aluminium prices, and from rupee movements
- Delays in transmission capex, failure to win large HVDC orders, and execution delays
- Dependence on PGCIL and state utilities, leading to higher receivables and working-capital burden
- Dependence on specialised global components, exposing the company to trade restrictions and supply disruptions
- Rising competition in transmission and generation equipment
- In the SWOT section: dependence on parent technology and on Siemens Energy Group's project allocation policy
Investor Watch Points
These are monitoring points drawn from the figures and risks in the report, not advice:
- The pace of order inflows and the Power Transmission share in the order book
- New HVDC VSC orders, which the brokerage has not included in its target
- Timely commissioning of the 30 GVA transformer capacity
- EBITDA margin in coming quarters: whether the 24% level holds or returns towards the 21% average
- Capex by PGCIL and state utilities
- The trend in FII and mutual fund holdings
- Receivable days, which were 89.6 in FY25
Conclusion
Deven Choksey Research views SEIL as a company present in both transmission and generation that could benefit from India's grid investment cycle. The brokerage's target rests on certain assumptions, such as a 60x multiple and the FY28 EPS estimate. According to the report, the company's TTM P/E is about 77.3x, while valuation on estimated FY28E appears lower. In other words, outcomes depend largely on whether the estimates prove accurate. Readers should do their own research or consult a certified advisor before investing.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. All estimates and targets belong to Deven Choksey Research.
