Indian equities head into the new week on a firm footing after the sensex jumped over 800 points and the Nifty gained about 1% on Friday, led by a sharp rally in banking stocks. Goft nifty was trading roughly 1.2% higher heading into the weekend, pointing to a positive opening, with European indices also closing brodly higher.
However, two globel risks could temper the otimism. Crude oil has surged after fresh attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's move to revoke Iran's Oil-sale waiver, pushing breant to $74-76 a barrel. higher crude typically pressures oil marketing companies, aviation stocks and India's import bill, while adding to inflation risk.
The bigger overhang is US monetary policy. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh has struck a hawkish tone ,with a majority of policymakers now signalling a possible rate hike by year-end. makers are pricing in meaningful odds of a move as early as September- a scenario that could strengthen the Dollar, trigger FII outflows and pressure the rupee. US CPI data and Warsh's congressional testimony, both due July 14,will be closely watched.
On the positive side, DII buying continues to cushion FII selling, financials remian the standout sector, and globel sentiment got a boost from SK hynix's blockbuster US listing, reinforcing the AI/semiconductor rally that has lifted risk appetile worldwide. Gold's hold above $4100/oz is supporting jewellery demand ahead of the wedding season.
Sectors to watch: Banking and realty (positive bias), oil marketing companies and avition (cautious), and metals (Mixed, on soft china demand). With earnings season starting -TCS already reported, US bamks due from July 14- stock-specific volatility is likely alongside the marco cues.
Disclaimer : This article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
