Global Chip Market Projected to Cross $1.6 Trillion in 2026 as AI Infrastructure Drives Growth
Jaipur: The pace at which the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution has transformed industries worldwide is now clearly visible in the numbers coming out of the semiconductor sector. According to the latest estimates, the global chip market could cross the $1.6 trillion mark in 2026 — a figure roughly one-and-a-half times higher than what was projected at the start of this year. This shows just how rapidly investment in AI infrastructure has accelerated.
Who Released the Report
This information comes from a report by the Korea Export-Import Bank's (Korea Eximbank) Research Center. The report draws on analysis from several global market research firms, including TrendForce. The report's findings were reported by South Korea's leading news agency, Yonhap News Agency.
Interestingly, this projection comes at a time when parts of the AI industry itself have raised concerns about losing control over the technology, with some calling for the pace of AI development to be slowed down. Despite this, current investment and demand trends suggest that the semiconductor industry's growth story is far from over.
Memory Chip Makers' Dominance
According to the report, memory chips are expected to see the largest increase in share within the global semiconductor market. In particular, two South Korean giants — Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — are expected to capture more than half of this market. The main reason is the unprecedented pace at which the volume of data processed by AI systems is growing, driving an ever-greater need for high-capacity, high-performance memory chips.
Training and running (inference of) AI models requires massive data centers, and memory chips form the backbone of these data centers. As large tech companies continue to expand their AI infrastructure, demand for memory chip makers keeps climbing correspondingly.
Sharp Rise in Chip Prices
This surging demand has directly impacted prices. According to the report, by the end of last month, Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) chip prices reached $25, while NAND flash memory chip prices reached $30.5. Compared to a year earlier, that marks an increase of about 4.4 times for DRAM chips and about 9 times for NAND flash memory chips.
This surge is not simply the result of an ordinary demand-supply imbalance — it shows that memory chips are becoming a strategic and limited resource for AI infrastructure, one that major companies are willing to secure at almost any price.
Outlook to 2030: A Jump from $1 Trillion Straight to $2 Trillion
The report offers another striking comparison. Until last year, the global semiconductor market was expected to cross the $1 trillion mark only by 2030. That estimate has now been completely revised. Due to major American and Chinese hyperscaler companies rapidly ramping up investment in AI infrastructure to run large-scale data centers, the market is now projected to cross $1.6 trillion as early as 2026, and reach close to $2 trillion by 2030.
In other words, a target once set for 2030 is now expected to be surpassed in 2026 itself, with the market size projected to nearly double over the following four years. This shift is a clear indication that the rapid penetration of AI technology across multiple sectors of the global economy is now clearly reflected in hardware supply chain figures as well.
Prices Expected to Stabilize Ahead, but Demand Set to Stay Strong
Per the report's latest projections, memory chip prices are expected to see some stabilization starting next year. However, this does not mean demand will weaken. Growth in the global semiconductor market is expected to continue on the back of strong demand.
The report also notes that major tech companies are now entering long-term supply agreements with memory chip makers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The report states directly: "Big tech companies are entering long-term supply agreements with memory chip makers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This will help stabilize the semiconductor industry more than before."
This move is significant because it not only helps memory chip makers plan their production capacity over the long term, but also protects tech companies from potential future supply shortages.
Slowdown Unlikely as AI Expansion Continues
Citing industry sources, the report notes that given the pace at which big tech companies are investing in AI and expanding AI services, a slowdown in the memory chip market appears unlikely in the near future. In other words, there are currently no strong signs pointing to any major decline in AI-driven chip demand anytime soon.
Conclusion
Overall, this report clearly shows that AI infrastructure is no longer confined to software or cloud services — it has reshaped the direction and pace of the entire global semiconductor industry. The sharp rise in memory chip prices, long-term supply agreements, and the significant upward revision in market size all confirm that the semiconductor industry will remain centered around AI in the years ahead.
What Matters Next for the Chip Market?
Going forward, it will be worth watching whether memory chip prices actually stabilize next year, or whether demand remains strong enough to push prices even higher. Additionally, if the concerns raised within the AI industry about "losing control over the technology" translate into policy interventions or decisions to slow the pace of development, that could directly affect chip demand. The long-term supply agreements being signed with companies like Samsung and SK Hynix will also play a key role in shaping the industry's direction in the months ahead.
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Source
Korea Export-Import Bank (Korea Eximbank) Research Center report, via Yonhap News Agency;
