Iran's New Hormuz Playbook: With Radars Destroyed, Small Boats Now Hunt Tankers as Attacks Intensify Ahead of US Elections
According to a Reuters report, Iran has changed its strategy for targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. After US strikes destroyed a large part of its radar network, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now using unarmed "spotters" on small boats to identify targets. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that the aim is to keep oil prices high and to pressure Washington ahead of the US midterm elections in November.
What Has Changed
A US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the IRGC began using small-boat surveillance after losing its radar capability. The people on these boats identify potential targets, including US Navy vessels, and pass the information to the IRGC.
According to the official, US forces last week identified a dhow (a traditional wooden boat) that Iranian spotters were using to call in targets. US forces told the people on board to abandon the vessel and then destroyed it. The official said there were no casualties. The incident had not been reported earlier.
The official added that Iran does not want to risk its remaining fast boats. US strikes have badly damaged its navy, and it has been unable to stop oil exports through Hormuz from increasing.
How Much Have Attacks Increased
Citing maritime security sources, Reuters reported at least 12 attacks or attempted attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers between September 28 and October 5. According to reports, this is the highest weekly figure since the war began on February 28. Data from the UN shipping agency, the IMO, showed the pace of attacks between October 3 and 5 at a similar level.
Recent incidents point the same way:
- On October 9, a VLCC (a very large crude carrier) near the UAE was hit by an unidentified projectile and caught fire. The fire was later extinguished.
- On October 12, UKMTO said an oil tanker leaving Hormuz was struck by a projectile. The crew was safe.
- Also on October 12, the IRGC Navy claimed it had set a third supertanker on fire within 48 hours.
Threat Beyond Hormuz
According to Reuters, Iranian officials said operations would not stay limited to Hormuz and would extend to the Gulf of Oman and farther afield. One official said such vessels would be "safe nowhere, even outside the Strait of Hormuz." Maritime security analysis suggests ships have already been targeted near the coasts of Qatar and the UAE. The IRGC Navy has also said in a statement that ships using unauthorised routes will be pursued across the region.
One official also said Iran is moving toward "complete closure soon," meaning a situation in which no vessel violating its restrictions could pass. According to a second official, Tehran will not let Trump bring oil prices down before the November elections. These are claims by Iranian officials, and how far they will be carried out remains unclear.
The US Response
The US has maintained a naval blockade of Iran since April, and naval escort operations are also under way in Hormuz. Even so, attacks on tankers have not stopped.
What It Means for Markets and India
According to CNN, more than a dozen attacks on shipping have taken place since the end of September, reducing the volume of oil moving through Hormuz and keeping crude prices above $100 a barrel.
India imports a large share of its crude oil needs, so high oil prices and disruption to shipping could affect the rupee, inflation and oil marketing company margins. For investors, Brent crude, the rupee's movement and OMC stocks will be key indicators to watch.
What to Watch Next
The focus will be on whether Iran follows through on its "complete closure" threat and how effective the US escort arrangement proves to be. With only a few weeks left before the election, markets will keep watching both the pace of attacks and oil prices.
Sources: Reuters
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